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2012 Tech Predictions Revisited

December 28, 2012 – by Per Christensson

It was around this time last year that I made my 2012 Tech Predictions. I predicted that Apple would release the iPhone 5 in the summer with a larger screen as well as the iPad 3 with a retina display. I also predicted Windows 8 would be announced, but not released until early 2013. In the smartphone world, I predicted Android would take over 50% of the mobile OS marketshare. Finally, I said we would see the first computer screens with HiDPI monitors in 2012.

So, how accurate were my predictions? Well, Apple released the iPhone 5 with a larger screen at the end of the summer. However, it was not as big I expected and it was released at the end of the summer (the last day actually), rather than in July or August. Apple also released the iPad 3 with a retina display, though they simply called it the "new iPad," which I still don't understand.

Microsoft surprised me by releasing Windows 8 on October 26, with more than two months to spare before the end of the year. However, based on the early reviews, maybe they should have waited a bit longer to iron out some user interface issues and build more developer support. Android grew even more than I expected, grabbing roughly 68% of the smartphone marketshare this year, according to IDC.

Finally, my dream of HiDPI monitors became a reality when Apple released the new 15" MacBook Pro with a retina display. I was so happy, I bought one myself. While Apple also released a 13" model a few months later, I was disappointed that no other PC manufacturers released HiDPI displays. Hopefully we'll see more next year.

Overall, it looks like 4 out of 5 of my predictions were accurate. That's not too bad, though perhaps it means I need to make some bolder predictions for next year. Stay tuned for my 2013 forecast in the next few days.

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